Fighting Terrorism

India has been held hostage to recurring acts of terror in the last few months. The latest of these attacks has occurred on September 27 in the Mehrauli area of New Delhi killing two people and injuring around 20. Just a fortnight ago on September 13, five serial blasts had spread panic across the geographical spread of India’s capital, killing 30 and injuring nearly 90.These had been preceded by the Jaipur serial bombings of May 13, the Bangalore bombings of July 25 and the Ahmedabad bombings of July 26, respectively. These Indian cities have been particularly chosen by the terrorists as they represent some of the most economically vibrant areas of the country.In 2006 and 2007, Mumbai and Hyderabad, India’s financial and computer software capitals had faced similar serial terror bombings.The worst affected in these recurring acts of terror has been civilians. From 2006 till date, more than 1000 civilians have lost their lives in India due to terror attacks. Though this trend is not very different from other areas of the world like Iraq where terrorist attacks have resulted in heavy civilian casualties, what is strikingly unique in the Indian case is that most of the market areas targeted by the terrorists are the favourite hubs of India’s growing middle class, the mainstay of its economic surge since 1991.A little known terror outfit calling itself “Indian Mujahideen” has claimed responsibility for the Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Delhi bombings. In an email tilted “Message of Death” sent after the Delhi bombings of September 13, the Indian Mujahideen asserted that atrocities by the Anti-Terrorism Squads (ATS) against India’s minority Muslim community after the Jaipur and Ahmedabad bombings, the Amarnath land dispute in Kashmir, the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992, and the Gujarat riots of 2002 were the reasons for its terror attacks.However, this is militant rhetorical posturing at best. What is evident from the recent attacks of terror including the low intensity blast on September 27 is that the Indian Mujahideen has two main objectives: First, it wants to establish its credibility as a home grown terror outfit to its target audience and funders in India and possible sponsors abroad.This aspect became evident after the Ahmedabad bombings when it demanded of the Lashkar–e-Taiyabba (LeT) to refrain from claiming a role behind the Ahmedabad bombings as that would have surely minimised the impact of the Indian Mujahideen’s effectiveness as an Indian terror outfit.Second, use of low intensity bombs indicate that the outfit wants to create social panic in India and also demonstrate the inability of the Indian security agencies in thwarting its violent activities. Recurring acts of terror in Indian cities have indeed revealed the alarming lack of security in these areas for the common citizen. What is worse is that it also reflects poorly on the security agencies.It has now come to light that after the Ahmedabad bombings of July 26, the police had intelligence that Delhi could be the likely target area of terrorist bombings after an arrested Indian Mujahideen cadre, Abul Bashar Qasmi revealed to the police the existence of such a terror plan.Averting terror requires a dedicated and well staffed security force. Indian cities, however, suffer from a gross shortage of police personnel since half of them are utilized for providing security to VIPs, and another half is utilized for administrative duties. Delhi for instance has a police force of 65,000 personnel, half of which are being used for government security. This leaves few personnel free for purely law enforcement duties.Close Circuit Television (CCTV) cameras installed in crowded areas are of a poor quality. For example, in the M-Block market of South Delhi, which was one of the areas that witnessed a terror blast on September 13, the terrorists had placed a bomb right under the CCTV at an angle of 25 degrees whereas the camera there could capture images only at an 80 degrees angle. Higher quality CCTVs are capable of capturing images at angles as low as 5-10 degrees range in vertical viewing and 6-11 degrees range in horizontal viewing depending on the lens type. This is rather disturbing as it drives home the fact that the Indian Mujahideen cadres, who had carried out reconnaissance of the target areas in Delhi on September 11, were aware of the type of CCTV camera installed in the area.Deterring recurring acts of terror in India would require a coordinated effort between the state and society. This means that instead of enacting more and more stringent anti-terror laws, the present Unlawful Activities Prevention Act must be better implemented. Also, it is vital that minority civil society organizations, who has already spoken against this kind of senseless terror acts, are utilized by the state to assuage fears prevalent in the communities they represent of victimization after terror attacks. The Indian media must also refrain from assuming who is a terrorist before guilt is proved in a court of law.Violent attacks on civilians by terror outfits never work in attaining an outfit’s objectives. Rather, it has proved counter-productive for the community a terror outfit claims to represent. Therefore, the state and society urgently requires activating counter-propaganda against objectives such as those cited by the Indian Mujahideen or any other such outfits.

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Stay United against terrorism of all kind

Blasts in Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Malegaon — the list goes on. We perhaps believed the worst of the terror run was over. But the pre-Diwali lull proved false. Yesterday, several blasts struck Assam — in Guwahati, Bongaigaon, Barpeta and Kokrajhar — leaving scores dead. Spread over almost the entire state, the horrific attacks proved yet again that enemies of India’s territorial and emotional integrity have organisational and technical capabilities that our law enforcers repeatedly underestimate. While fanatics demonstrate with sickening regularity their power to strike at will, the official response is invariably an assertion of renewed resolve to fight terror. Assam’s tragedy shows up, damningly, the government’s failure to deliver on that promise. There were recent warnings that Assam was on the radar of a United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA)-Harkat-ul-Jihadal-Islami (HuJI) combine. It should have been on high alert, more so given recent ethnic strife between Bodo tribespeople and Bangladeshi migrants. The north-eastern state’s strategic importance in terms of resource wealth — oil, in particular — and security cannot be overstated. More, its social fabric has long been stretched thin by students’ movements against ‘foreigners’, fears of demographic change, ULFA’s secessionist violence and ethnic strife fomented by the National Democratic Front of Bodoland. Pakistani and Bangladeshi militants have long been known to be fishing in these troubled waters; homegrown terror in the form of the Indian Mujahideen (IM) has only helped their agenda in the north-east and elsewhere. In September, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh insisted that the UPA wasn’t soft on terror. This had gone along with a frank admission of gaps in our intelligence network. It may be asked what the home ministry has done since then to reinforce preventive intelligence and law enforcement mechanisms. When it comes to anti-terror combat, it seems India can no longer afford the growing perception of being led by an excessively gentlemanly prime minister and a dandy but weak home minister. For, the prevailing sense of drift has only served to embolden all kinds of challenges to the Indian Union. Terrorism is now a pan-India phenomenon, with terror recruits being traced to even Kerala. Home-grown extremists — whether of the IM or of the saffron variety — are deepening religious divides. At the same time, Naxalite carnage is beating previous records. Now, regional chauvinism of the Raj Thackeray kind threatens to blow up into an interstate conflagration. People’s representatives can no longer wink at the fact that India’s unity is under siege or play games of electoral one-upmanship. The prime minister must immediately do something. He should call an all-party emergency meeting, so that the entire political spectrum stands — and is seen to stand — united against balkanisers and hate-mongers of every stripe.

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Inflation control: Limits of monetary policy

Imagine a software professional or a well-paid executive in India’s rapidly-growing financial sector. Is he bothered if the prices of potatoes, onions and carrots double? Hardly. His income is so high that staples form a tiny part of his budget.Switch to a daily wage earner on subsistence wages and the picture is very different. Day-to-day necessities consume most of an uncertain income. Food inflation strikes at the root of his existence.The upwardly mobile, on the other hand, has an entirely different profile of inflation sensitivity – the cost of good housing, personal transportation, quality education and health care.While inflation means a general rise in prices, it does make sense to distinguish among food inflation, energy inflation, commodity inflation, wholesale price inflation, consumer price inflation, wage inflation, inflation in manufactured goods and (the latest) asset price inflation. Also, is general inflation demand-driven or cost-pushed? What about demand and supply elasticities? Inelasticity translates into price rigidity and makes policy actions ineffective.
First priority A sensible government must first attend to inflation in basic goods. After all, the first priority is to keep the masses off street protests. At this fundamental level, our rulers come out with flying colours. Rationed rice costs Rs 2, the market is Rs15 and more. Rice and wheat exports were banned the moment the government smelt a global shortage and rising prices. Buffer stocks are more than adequate.Food security, thankfully, has not been compromised, even as the quality ofgovernance touches new lows.Edible oil, vegetable and fruit prices are up reportedly 50 per cent and more. That could be because of a demand spurt or supply shortfall or a demand inelastic situation. (The ‘efficient’ and ‘cost effective’ supply chains of the new retail giants seem to have failed here). Hopefully, their prices will trend back to normal in time as supply augments.Energy conservation On energy, there is no excuse for dithering on indexation to global prices and subsidising the consumption of expensive oil. We have forgotten elementary economics – market prices are signals and stimulants to improve efficiency and productivity and shifts to alternative, cheaper sources. Surely, we can start with differential (much higher) levies on big cars and Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs) both at purchase and fuel consumption points.With our advances in information technology and communications, we ought to encourage managers and knowledge workers to work as much as possible from home. his applies with even more force to governments. The energy saving and relief in traffic congestion are incalculable.
What is the upshot? Monetary policy and interest rates have far less to do in inflation management than generally imagined. A far greater onus seems to lie with government

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Inflation antidotes

To combat inflation, policymakers should create more purchasing power, not reduce it. Subsidies are fine, social security is better but job creation is best.
When the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, presented his first full budget in 2005, he could look forward to a bright future. The economy, growing at 6-7 per cent, was on song and the burden of high inflation — 8.7 per cent the previous August — had been lifted. With the ink on the Common Minimum Programme still wet and inflation down at 5 per cent, the Finance Minister promised innovative approaches to development and a congenial environment for investment. Three years later, Mr Chidambaram finds the present imperfect and the future tense. Barely has the RBI taken its finger off the repo rate button than a defiant inflation spurts from around 8 per cent to 11 per cent. Suddenly, the policymaker is faced with unwelcome records; no government would like to exit office with a legacy of such a price rise. At the very least, the current situation of rising prices and falling industrial output requires the kind of innovative approach the government promised when it assumed office four years ago.
There are signs of some half-hearted initiatives. Export curbs, import relaxation of food-grains, the recent fuel tax cut and attempts at austerity in government travel are insufficient. Most crucially the deprived should be empowered to cope more effectively with costlier energy, food and power. The most obvious way would be to smother the fire; the most obvious direction to seek help from would be Mint Street. That is what the Finance Minister did when he promised strong “demand and monetary measures”. But the RBI’s interest rate adjustments are putting out the wrong fires; manufacturing output is declining consistently on falling demand. This month’s repo rate cut and the strong possibility of another one will only goad banks to make credit more costly, with a greater impact on output down the road.
The more effective way to blunt the effects of rising prices would be to ensure that more goods are produced and then used more efficiently. Getting more mileage in the truck from that litre of diesel, reducing the quantity of steel and cement used per square metre of building are some obvious strategies for consumers, but for government it is time to get to the root of the supply constraints. If steel is in short supply it is because no new projects have been facilitated in recent years; if coal is expensive it is because production is constrained — long-pending amendments to legislations on mining and land acquisition need to be steered through Parliament to bring in new investment. Increasing employment opportunities is the best way of arming people most affected by inflation, and that is achieved only by clearing the roadblocks to investment. Policymakers need to create more purchasing power and not seek to reduce it. Subsidies are fine, social security is better but job creation is best. That is what can halt the creeping gloom now pervading the economy’s interstices.

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Assumed Guilty

As human rights activists and the Muslim community demand a probe into the September 19 Batla House incident, in which two alleged terrorists and one police officer were killed, some tough questions emerge: Do accused terrorists deserve the same rights as everyone else? Should we deny the liberties of a few to protect millions? And, perhaps most importantly, do we trust the government to make those decisions for us? History has taught us that perhaps we shouldn’t. Consider the more than 1,00,000 Japanese-Americans who the United States government forcibly locked in “war relocation camps” after the 1941 Pearl Harbor attacks. The fear of disloyalty turned out to be unfounded, and based on “racial prejudice, wartime hysteria, and a failure of political leadership”, as the government admitted 40 years later. But you can’t turn back the clock on the countless lives that were destroyed in the process. With increasing terrorist attacks around the globe, it’s natural for us to feel that the world is more dangerous now than it’s ever been. In the United States, the threat to security seems real in a way it never did before September 11. Terrorist attacks used to be the news of faraway countries — news that most Americans could conveniently ignore. The attacks on American soil were a tragic reminder that the United States is not immune. And in India, where over 400 people have been killed since 2006 in a series of bomb blasts across the country, “the scourge of terrorism gets worse by the day”, in one resident’s words. Whether the world is actually a scarier place on the whole now than it was, say, 200 years ago, we can’t pretend to know. It would probably depend a lot on who you asked. The threats — real or imagined — facing each generation always seem more pressing and dangerous than anything that’s come before. And that’s what has always motivated us to make exceptions to the rules — the sense that this time, it’s different. When fear and power combine, things get even scarier. That’s the climate that led to the atrocities at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, where prisoners have been subjected to a variety of cruel and unusual punishments since the US government opened the detention centre in 2002. The Batla House shoot-out in Delhi took place out of the eyes of the public. And that’s exactly why it deserves to be investigated. It could be that the police report is 100 per cent accurate: Six officers stormed an apartment in Jamia Nagar, a shoot-out ensued and two of the masterminds behind the September 13 New Delhi bombings were killed in the crossfire. Those demanding an impartial judicial inquiry into the incident say the police story doesn’t make sense. Some say it was a governmentorchestrated execution. It’s been widely reported that “encounter killings” are a common extrajudicial tactic for dealing with the problem of terrorism. The police officer who died that day, M C Sharma, had reportedly killed 35 terrorists and 40 other criminals in his 19-year career. (Which begs the question: Doesn’t Sharma’s death prove that a shoot-out took place?) Government must be transparent in its response to terrorism. The public has a right to know what happened on that day. And even the worst among us — the alleged criminals and terrorists — have a right to due process. That includes the right to a fair and speedy trial, the right to a proper defence and the presumption of innocence until a person is proven guilty. It is these safeguards that give a democracy its backbone. The shoot-out no doubt came as welcome news to many, who thought, “Good. Two less terrorists.” But that’s an emotional response to a problem that we must approach rationally. It’s in our darkest times — and it doesn’t get much darker than wartime — that we are most susceptible to error. We cannot allow our fear to cloud our judgment. We cannot accept this fatally flawed notion that the ends always justify the means in the so-called “war on terror”. Or we will doubtless be judged by history for our mistakes.

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Whose Mumbai is it?

To understand the phenomenon of Raj Thackeray and the present predicament of Mumbai and its reaction in distant Bihar, one has to combine a psychological and sociological perspective. In the case of Raj — and equally of his uncle Bal — it can truly be said that the personal is political. While the psychological is provided by the unfolding of the relationship between them, the sociological is the constant invention of the ‘other’ as a necessary tactic of survival by the Shiv Sena, and now the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Raj Thackeray, as we know, decided to reinvent himself once it became clear that he was not going to be Bal Thackeray’s political heir. For the latter, the son’s blood triumphed over that of the nephew, ushering in the unlikely leader Uddhav as Bal’s successor. One isn’t quite sure what made the senior Thackeray change his mind after years of having projected Raj as his political heir. In installing Uddhav, Bal Thackeray showed an unusual lack of wisdom, fuelling a hostile competitiveness and rancour in the spurned Raj Thackeray. To teach Bal and Uddhav a lesson, Raj decided to take them on — on their own turf — by launching the MNS. The MNS would not only challenge the Shiv Sena but also other parties and lay its own claim to representing Marathi Mumbaikars if not all of Maharashtra. While rarely coming into open conflict, the two factions have been waging an underground war for supremacy. Raj, through his long and close association with his uncle learnt everything that the latter could teach — how to control Mumbai through muscle power, how to hold it to ransom, how to tweak the psychological nerves of Mumbaikar Maharashtrians so that they felt ‘represented’ and protected against the perceived onslaught of ‘foreigners’ of all hues — those poor and distraught other Indians who make their way to the shores of Mumbai to seek livelihoods their own lands deny them. He learnt well enough that the superstructure of a passionate mass following would be provided by loyal Marathi Mumbaikars. He also knew that the steel structure that supported such outpourings in favour of ‘the leader’ was built upon a well-oiled machinery of intimidation and extortion through the redistribution of which loyalty of the common Marathi Mumbaikar was bought. And Raj, like his uncle, and unlike his cousin, has the guts of steel to mastermind, condone and operate through such machinery. Innumerable writings and films are testimony to the composite nature of Mumbai, created as it continually is through the migrations of Indians of all hues — whether they be from the east, west, north or south. In this, Mumbai is no different from any other major city — say New York or London. Like New York, Mumbai is also an island where people are packed in and thrown upon each other, where they are forced to relate to each other irrespective of class, caste, income, language or regional and religious division. Perhaps, there is a greater scope for combustion in such places. Perhaps real relationships are fewer. Sociologists such as Simmel and Wirth have debated on what a city engenders and what matters most in it — the breakdown of community, the emergence of the blase spirit, or the flowering of freedom, independence and intellect, not to mention innovation. What we do know is that such cities are built from the labour of millions of individuals, each searching for their own dream and trying to make a go of it. Do such cities belong to anyone? Can they survive by abdicating to claims of primacy by a particular ethnic group, granting it privileges not granted to others? Language is a privilege that comes with ethnicity and those moving to Mumbai do not resist the language but accommodate their own speech to it. Marathi is not threatened by other languages and Bambaiya Hindi, even more so, is a special creation of the city itself. The Shiv Sena has survived as a regional party through a long track record in successfully creating the ‘outsiders’ and presenting them as those who take away what rightfully belongs to the ethnic Marathi speaker. We don’t need to remind ourselves that first it was south Indians who faced this, followed by Muslims with the latest victims being people from UP and Biharis. It seems that the Shiv Sena cannot do without drumming up a perceived enemy. Easy to beat down upon, the outsiders have always been a migrant minority — regional or religious. What does this do for the greatness of Marathi manoos that the opponents chosen are weak and defenceless unlike those that their hero Shivaji chose to battle? But perhaps the relevant point is that for Raj Thackeray it is not the Bihari who is the real opponent — it is really uncle who he is fighting to wrest back what he perceives to be his rightful inheritance. That day may not be far away as the older Thackeray fades away to meet his maker. Unfortunately, the youthfulness of a desperate Raj promises us that his brand of goondagiri is not about to fade away in a hurry. To limit the damage resulting from his disruptive and violence-generating actions, one needs more police officers like Prasad, the first one who daringly asserted “Mumbai kisi ke baap ki hahin hai”. Such police officers need the support of political leaders if Mumbai is to fulfil its promise of being a world city.

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Look beyond cricket to become a global sporting power

The Bonn World Chess Championship title is the crowning glory of Viswanathan Anand’s quarter-century-old career. Anand is now the master of the game in knockout, tournament and matchplay, the three formats in which chess is played at the highest level. His success in matchplay, considered the forte of Vladimir Kramnik, the Russian grandmaster he defeated, is all the more remarkable because he won two games while playing with black pieces. Anand’s success is remarkable for other reasons also. India has an illustrious tradition in chess; the game originated here. However, this country had not produced a world champion until Anand took the world by storm by winning the World Junior Championship in 1987. His style of game, fast and aggressive, set him apart from the Russians, who till then dominated the game. Here was a player willing to take risks and fight to win. Anand made chess a more exciting game than it ever was in the 1990s. His rise captured the imagination of the Indian public and provided a big push for chess here. There has been a profusion of grandmasters in India since the advent of Anand. Anand’s success has pushed advertisers to look beyond cricket. That’s good for the game because chess, like all other sports in India except cricket, is short on funds. Sponsorships and ad assignments will help young grandmasters, like P Harikrishna and Koneru Humpy to raise their game. Shooters like Rajyavardhan Rathore and Abhinav Bindra have clearly shown that Indians can be world-beaters in disciplines other than cricket. It is important that India builds on these successes. For a country that aspires to be a global power, India’s record in sports is pathetic. Indian hockey is a pale shadow of its former self. Badminton and tennis have provided occasional sparkle. There is no reason why a country of one billion plus people should have such a limited presence in the world of sport. Countries of size — the US, China, Russia, Brazil, Japan — have done exceptionally well in sports to complement their influence in world affairs. World powers are those countries that have excelled in every sphere of human activity. Success breeds success; sporting glory rubs off on other aspects of living. It’s time that the rest of India takes a cue from Anand and makes the right moves.

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Earth heading for ecological ‘credit crunch’

ANOTHER MELTDOWN Reckless borrowing against earth’s exhausted bounty is driving the planet toward an ecological “credit crunch”, the Worldwide Fund for Nature warned on Wednesday. Growing demands on natural capital — such as forests, water, soil, air and biodiversity — already outstrip the world’s capacity to renew these resources by a third, according to the WWF’s Living Planet Report. “If our demands on the planet continue to increase at the same rate, by the mid-2030s we would need the equivalent of two planets to maintain our lifestyles,” said James Leape, the green group’s director general, in releasing the study. The cost of bailing out financial institutions during the economic meltdown, while huge, pales in comparison to the lost value caused every year by ecological damage to the environment, experts say. A European Union study calculates that the world is losing between two and five trillion dollars in natural capital every year due to the degradation of the ecosystems. “The world is currently struggling with the consequences of over-valuing financial assets,” said Leape. “But a more fundamental crisis looms, an ecological credit crunch caused by undervaluing the environmental assets that are the basis of all life and prosperity.” The report shows that more than three quarters of the planet’s population live in nations that are ecological debtors — countries where consumption outstrips biological capacity. Produced with the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) and the Global Footprint Network (GFN), the bi-annual study measures the ecological footprint of human demand on natural resources, and assesses earth’s ability to remain a “living planet”. The 2008 edition shows a drop off of nearly 30% since 1970 in some 5,000 monitored populations of 1,686 different species.

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