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Saturday, November 8, 2008

Obama in India's interests will remain safe with the change.

Once the euphoria over Barrack Obama’s election subsides, there should be a cold assessment of what the new Democratic Presidency would mean to India in terms of bilateral ties and its relations with other countries. An evaluation has already started, based on some recent public statements of the President-elect and the known positions of Democrats on important issues. This may not amount to more than an envisaging of possible scenarios and preparation of policy options. But in the absence of a clearly laid down policy agenda by the new government, they may not carry much more than academic value.This happens with every change of regime, and since Obama has won on a platform of change it is right to get ready for it. Some issues in which Indian interests are involved, range from the new government’s outsourcing policy, to arms control to Kashmir. Though the Democrats are less enthused about shipping jobs outside the US and are greater protectionists than the Republicans, the realities of the American economy may not allow much stricter controls than at present. And Indian companies are experienced enough to evolve new strategies that suit new situations. If the Obama administration goes in for ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and conclusion of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) that might put some pressure on India to, among other things, legally abjure further nuclear testing. This will call for some diplomatic manoeuvring by India but there is unlikely to be any serious damage to Indian interests. Obama’s statement on Kashmir has created apprehensions that India might be pressurised to accept mediation and deal with a US policy that clubs India with Pakistan. But the Indian position on Kashmir is clear and New Delhi has withstood greater pressures on the issue in the past. If these are issues on which differences are expected, the likely US positions on WTO negotiations and climate change may present more common ground than with the Bush administration. All these issues will in fact be addressed within the framework of the strategic relationship between India and the US, which Obama has endorsed. Views expressed during the campaign are not the official views of the incoming government and much deliberation would later go into converting them into policies. India has dealt with very unfriendly White House environments and policies in the past, and now when the country has a higher profile in the world, it may not find it very difficult to withstand any likely pressure, that may go against its interests.

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