Assam Emerging as Communal Terror Complex

Assam, India’s largest state in the North East is not new to terrorism. However the State faced a new form of terror after the State was smugly celebrating defanging of the ULFA. 12 serial blasts rocked the capital Guwahati and three other towns of Lower Assam on 30 October between 1100 – 1200 hours. There were 6 blasts in Guwahati, 2 in Barpeta, 3 in Bongaigaon and 1 in Kokrajhar. Over 70 people were killed in these blasts and hundreds injured. The blasts were carried out in crowded locations including Ganeshpuri, DC office, Fancy bazaar, Pan bazaar and District Court in Guwahati for maximum impact. Explosives were planted on two wheelers and in cars in a well planned move. High powered explosive possibly RDX at least in Guwahati was suspected. The crowds in Guwahati agitated over large number of casualties, took to the streets and started stone pelting and burning of public transport. Curfew was imposed in Guwahati but could be weakly enforced by the police. The blasts were denied by the ULFA but were claimed by a new organisation Islamic Security Force – Indian Mujahideen (ISF IM). The police and intelligence authorities suspect that terrorists from the HUJI-ULFA combine could have master minded this operation using the ISF IM as a front.These serial attacks came after 60 people died and 150,000 were displaced in clashes between Bodo tribes-people and Muslim settlers in Udalguri and Darrang districts. Wasbir Hussain a noted North East specialist indicated that riots between Bodos and Muslim settlers were common previously and have occurred in 1993, 1994, 1995, and Bodo-Santhal riots thereafter. This time the violence in the Bodo areas is primarily between the local Assamese and the Bangladesh migrants. The migrants did not spare any local be it of any religion and many of the Assamese Muslims were also targeted in the area. The communal patchwork of Assam creates many possibilities for internal communal strife. The situation is complicated by induction of a large number of migrants into the state which has been for a variety of reasons and has been politically exploited by various parties from time to time. The reality is that the demographic balance in Assam has shifted in many parts and there is possibility of communal unrests from time to time. Many analysts believe that the problems in Assam relate to high growth rate of Muslim population compared to the Hindu population at approximately 15 percent which has led to the fear that Assam would be overrun by Muslims who migrate from Bangladesh. In the period 1991-2001, the Hindu population in the state grew from 1.5 crore to over 1.7 crore, but their proportion in the population fell from 67% to 65%, further adding to the insecurity of the Hindus. More over migration has been treated by the government from time to time as vote bank politics. This has led to ignoring the imbalance created on the ground, resulting in frequent backlash. Therefore there have been many instances when communal violence has lashed the state in the past. The situation is likely to exacerbate in the days ahead.Meanwhile on the ULFA front, the Police continued efforts to bring Ulfa’s 709 battalion over ground with direct communication links established with Hira Sarania. The police are hopeful that in case they are able to bring around cadres of 709 battalion, there would be increasing scope for peace in the troubled state, despite the recent blasts. “The 28 and 709 are the two main fighting battalions of the outfit not only in terms of striking power, but from a strategic point of view too. The 28 battalion gives the outfit access to Myanmar, while the 709 battalion uses Bhutan and Nepal,” said a police officer. [Inputs from Daily Telegraph Report 25 October 2008].Plans are also being made to provide a safe passage, an idea acceded by the army. “We still regret having declared a ceasefire in 2006 and allowing the Ulfa to regroup, but the situation has changed since then, particularly after the A and C companies of Ulfa’s 28 battalion declared truce. The risks of regrouping have been minimised to a significant extent and, therefore, there is no harm in trying out the safe passage,” an army officer was reported to have said in this context. The proposal for safe passage may not attract the ULFA B Company as it is apparent that the ULFA command based in Bangladesh has been successful in regaining some degree of command and control in Assam. A socio-economic package is being prepared by Ulfa Truce group to lure other militants to their fold. Within this paradigm a comprehensive solution may emerge and the same is likely to be announced on 1 January 2009. However this would not fructify now possibly due to the spoke of the bomb attacks. There is good reason to believe that counter ULFA strategy seems to be working. However the ULFA has possibly imposed HUJI cadres and also given a communal twist which needs to be guarded against. Penetration of the HUJI in Lower Assam is of concern as this is the soft underbelly of the state with common borders with Bangladesh. The ULFA having been marginalized, there are increasing signs of the HUJI being inducted by the Bangladesh intelligence agency to up the ante of terrorism in the area. Thus more stringent measures would be required for ensuring that the group does not develop any roots in Assam.The Border Security Force (BSF) has admitted to presence of Bangladesh-based Islamic terror group, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) in the North Eastern states. “Yes, the presence of HuJI militants in the region cannot be denied especially after the serial bomb blast in Agartala,” Inspector General of BSF in-charge Assam, Meghalaya and Nagaland Frontier, PK MishraManaging peace with competing pressure on militants who have opted for a truce or are thinking of the same is a most difficult proposition as there are varying forces at work on the cadres particularly their erstwhile bosses based in Bangladesh which leads to adoption of differing stands. At the same time security forces are charged with caution in launching operations as this would disrupt peace negotiations. There is no formal cease fire and thus the security forces are also concerned of militants using this break to recoup and reequip themselves for the fight. Thus these contradictory trends would denote the many problems faced in Assam in the days ahead